Today will be an interesting day as we have two main features creating our weather. The first feature is a stalled front draped across AR/TN/MS that will slowly creep down throughout the day. It will keep our winds out of the south and enhance rain chances. Our second feature is the reminant low associated with TD5 located just west of the MS river near Vicksburg,MS. The reminant low, coupled with the stalled front, should make for some pretty good rain chances. Our sfc dewpoints are in the mid-70's once again, with precipitable water (PW) values near 2.2 inches over the region. For future reference, PW's over 2 inches are conducive to heavy rainfall. I would expect almost all places in the tri-county area to recieve rainfall today. The NWS BMX (Birmingham) morning discussion made two valid points concerning our weather today. First, the chance of excessive rainfall. Due to our proximity to the remains of TD5, North-South convective banding is possible which would create almost constant rainfall for an area all day. Several inches are possible for a few areas if this occurs, and although the locations can't be pinpointed at the moment, it is possible. The second point they made concerned the small tornado threat today. This will be confined mostly to the extreme western counties in Alabama and will be more likley into MS, where conditions are slightly more favorable. As with most landfalling tropical systems, extra "spin", or vorticity, is added to the atmosphere which can be just enough to spin up weak, short lived tornados. The SPC doesn't even recognize this risk as they believe our tornado risk is less than 2%, but I felt is was worth mentioning.
Forecast:
HI: 90-92
LO:73-75
RAIN: 80% for areas to the South and West
70% for areas to the North and East
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