Search This Blog

Monday, August 30, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: Monday 8/30/2010


Most of our area has experienced a rainy weekend, which was somewhat unexpected based on weather data from late last week. However, I don't think anyone could complain as we all recieved beneficial rainfall. Today should be rainy as well, as an area of high pressure is situated to our east, providing southerly flow and a moist air mass. I wouldn't expect the coverage in rain that we have seen over the past few days, but today should be our last day before conditions dry out a little. Expect high's to remain in the upper 80's as cloud cover and intermittent rain helps to keep temps down.

Forecast:
HI: 87-89
LO: 70-72
RAIN: 50% after noon

Tropics:
Hurricane Earl is still alive and well as a CAT 2 in the Carribean. He is expected to turn north in response to a weakness in the ridge, however he will come dangerously close to the Eastern Seaboard. He will not impact our weather directly, however, I would expect to see a drop in daytime highs mid-week if the track is adjusted much farther west. More to follow soon.....

Friday, August 27, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: Friday 8/27/2010


Discussion: Overnight lows stayed 5-7 degrees warmer than I had expected, reading 67 F in Hamilton and 71 in Fayette. Regardless, morning temperatures are pleasant and today shouldn't differ much from yesterday. Not much to mention in this benign weather pattern... Dry air aloft inhibits any rain chances, while also lowering dewpoints, heat indices, and night-time lows.

Forecast:
HI: 91-93 F
LO: 68-72 F
RAIN: 10% or less

Tropics: Still two names storms in the gulf, Danielle (CAT 4) and Earl (TS). Neither pose a threat to the US, however, the NHC is monitoring a new wave off the African coast that may show significance in the coming days. Look for Tropical Storm Fiona soon.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: Thursday 8/26/2010

Discussion: Temperatures this morning range from 68F in Fayette to 64 in Hamilton. Tomorrow morning should be the coolest, however, with readings in the lower 60's. A cold front is stretched across TN and will work its way southward and through our area today. I wouldn't expect much if anything in the way of rain associated with the front, just another reinforcing shot of dry air. The front will provide northerly flow for a few days and keep our temperatures closer to average, if not slightly below average.

Forecast:
HI: 87-90 (Cooler in the northern cities)
LO: 61-64
RAIN: Less than 10%

Tropical Update: Hurricane Danielle has gained strength and now has max winds of 105 mph. She is currently at CAT 2 status and is expected to briefly reach CAT 3 status. Current forecast takes her north and out to sea by early next week. Tropical Storm Earl is located to the South and East of Danielle and has winds of 45 mph. Although he is expected to take a southerly track and reach hurricane status in a day or so, he is also expected to curve north over the weekend.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: Wednesday 8/25/2010

Discussion: Once again, temperatures this morning are starting in the middle 60's which has been a needed break. Today should be another beautiful day, with clear skies and relatively cooler temperatures. Cities in the northern part of the area such as Hamilton and Hackelburg may not even reach 90 today!

Forecast:
HI: 89-92F
LO: 64-66
RAIN: 10% or less

Tropical Update: Hurricane Danielle has weakened unexpectedly over the last 24 hours, however she is still expected to gain strength over the next few days. She is still predicted to be a "fish" and curve north out to sea long before she ever poses a threat to land.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: Tuesday 8/24/2010


The air outside feels wonderful this morning with temperatures in the mid 60's and lower humidity, both of which are a result of dry air that arrived yesterday afternoon. Today's forecast is about as simple as they come. Expect temps to max out in the mid-90's, with heat indices only in the upper-90's. Rain chances look slim, near 10%. Overnight lows should be just cool enough again tonight to open up the windows and turn off the A/C.


Forecast
HI: 94-96F
LO: 63-65F
RAIN: 10% or less

Tropical Update:
Hurricane Danielle formed yesterday and has reached CAT 2 status as of this morning. Although she will be fun to watch, Danielle is expected to curve to the north and stay out to sea. This is called a "fish" in weather terms.

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: Saturday 8/21/2010


Today should be mostly sunny with high's in the middle 90's and a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. A shortwave trough forming across the TN valley, coupled with PW > 2 inches, and decent CAPE values, will initiate showers and storms this afternoon over TN and extreme N AL. Outflow boundaries traveling south from these storms will be the cause for any rain we receive today. Although parameters are supportive of locally heavy rainfall once again today, I just don't feel confident of a widespread event.

Having that said, expect a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms today- with potential for isolated heavy amounts. High's should top out between 94-96F, and overnight low's in the mid 70's.

Friday, August 20, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: Friday 8/20/2010


A foggy start today as low level moisture is high enough to cause saturation at the surface. The fog should dissapate by 8-9 AM as temps increase. Today will feature a chance for some isolated heavy rainfall, although not widespread. We have a weak frontal boundary draped across the state that will act as a forcing mechanism to generate lift and showers and the atmosphere warms. PW values are quite high (2.3-2.5) and upper-level winds are low, which would suggest thunderstorms that then to "sit" in one area and dump large amounts of rain.

Morning Forecast: Today should be slightly warmer across the area with highs in the 92-94F range. Expect a 30% chance of rain across the southern portions of the area, with isolated heavy amounts. Northern Fayette, northern Lamar, and Marion counties are less likely to recieve rainfall, with a 20% chance in the afternoon.

**Mid-Morning Update** Higher PW values are advecting downstream, meaning a lessened rain chance for the area. N-NW Marion county should remain mostly dry for the remainder of the day, with all other areas falling to 20%. Best chance of rain in the state will be to the South and East of our area.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Forecast Discussion: Thursday 8/19/2010


Today's weather will be mostly influenced by the stalled frontal boundary to our north. The reminants of TD5 has finally dissapated after almost 2 weeks, however the moisture content across the state still remains high. Rainfall today will be a little less organized and will be more dependant on how much heating we amass during the day. I would expect rain chances to fall near 40% today, slightly higher if we get a break in clouds early. As for tonight, expect lows to be a little cooler as our dewpoints slack off a bit.


Forecast
HI: 90-92
LO:70-72
RAIN: 40-50%

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: Wednesday 8/18/2010


Today will be an interesting day as we have two main features creating our weather. The first feature is a stalled front draped across AR/TN/MS that will slowly creep down throughout the day. It will keep our winds out of the south and enhance rain chances. Our second feature is the reminant low associated with TD5 located just west of the MS river near Vicksburg,MS. The reminant low, coupled with the stalled front, should make for some pretty good rain chances. Our sfc dewpoints are in the mid-70's once again, with precipitable water (PW) values near 2.2 inches over the region. For future reference, PW's over 2 inches are conducive to heavy rainfall. I would expect almost all places in the tri-county area to recieve rainfall today. The NWS BMX (Birmingham) morning discussion made two valid points concerning our weather today. First, the chance of excessive rainfall. Due to our proximity to the remains of TD5, North-South convective banding is possible which would create almost constant rainfall for an area all day. Several inches are possible for a few areas if this occurs, and although the locations can't be pinpointed at the moment, it is possible. The second point they made concerned the small tornado threat today. This will be confined mostly to the extreme western counties in Alabama and will be more likley into MS, where conditions are slightly more favorable. As with most landfalling tropical systems, extra "spin", or vorticity, is added to the atmosphere which can be just enough to spin up weak, short lived tornados. The SPC doesn't even recognize this risk as they believe our tornado risk is less than 2%, but I felt is was worth mentioning.

Forecast:
HI: 90-92
LO:73-75
RAIN: 80% for areas to the South and West
70% for areas to the North and East

Monday, August 16, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: Monday 8/16/2010


Almost everyone in the tri-county area received substantial rainfall this weekend. The upcoming days should be no different as the tropical disturbance that brought us all this rain has made a big loop and is now back over water in the gulf. The models have been hinting at this scenario for a while, and I am impressed to see it happening. The NHC has been monitoring this situation as well, and has 50% confidence of intensification into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. All of this means two things for us in NW Al....cooler temps, and increased rain chances. Several factors will influence our weather this week, but for today the big player will be a "warm front" moving north through the state. This should help to initiate thunderstorms later in the day as temperatures/dewpoints climb.

HI: 93-95F LO:72-74F %RAIN: 30%
*Rain chances should increase this afternoon and fire along the warm front lifting across the state. Coupled with abundant moisture and daytime heating, a few storms could be strong (although not quite like yesterday).

Friday, August 13, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: Friday August 13, 2010


If you step outside you should notice two things: the heat and humidity! Most areas didn't drop below 80F last night, which is quite warm. At 10pm last night, Birmingham still registered 90F. For today, temperatures will still climb into the upper 90's but with increased moisture levels, it will actually feel much warmer outside. Heat indices could max out between 110-113F today. Rain chances should also improve with highest chances later this weekend. However, with temps progged to climb near 100, PW values over 2 inches, and high dewpoints, I feel confident in calling for a chance of rain today. I would put my probability around 50% late this afternoon, then decreasing after nightfall.

To the right you can see what remains of Tropical Depression 5. It should bring higher rain chances, increased cloud cover, and cooler temperatures for us over the weekend. The start of next week looks to be cooler and wetter as the low pressure area associated with TD5 "bounces" around the Southeast.

Forecast:
HI: 96-98F LO:75-78F %RAIN: 50% to the south (Millport, Vernon, Fayette, Berry)
40% north of a line from Sulligent-Winfield

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: 8/12/2010

Soon enough we will get a break from the heat...just not today. Moisture is already on the increase with dewpoints reading higher this morning than the previous 2 days. Highs should remain in the mid 90's with heat indices near 110 once again. Rain chances are slightly better today, but the bulk of our rain will occur Fri-Sun as the remnants of TD5 pump moisture over our region. Expect a welcomed break from the heat over the weekend as well as clouds move in and help to keep daytime high's in the lower 90's. Overnight lows should stay slightly warmer than normal in the upper mid-upper 70's.

**A slight cool down is possible for next week if model solutions are correct. We will just have to wait and see if more models come on board and show persistance. More to come later as more data comes in**

Forecast
HI: 97-99 LO: 76-79 %Rain- 30%

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: 8/11/2010


Don't expect relief from the heat anytime soon. Today should be a tad warmer than yesterday with high temperatures near 100F. Heat indices should climb to near 110F between 12-3 pm so be careful and drink plenty of water if you have to be outside. Thunderstorms will be strictly delegated by daytime heating and mesoscale boundaries. Don't expect much in the way of rainfall area wide today.

Forecast: Hi: 98-100F Lo: 74-76F Rain%- 10%

Tropical Depression 5 has formed in the gulf since my last forecast, something we have been hinting at for the past few days. It will be interesting to watch how this system evolves over the next few days. Current track has the system landfalling at the LA/MS border Friday morning as a Tropical Storm, then curving to the NE over Central Alabama. However, intensity and track are likley to change in the coming days. Several different scenarios are possible, but for now the track makes sense. More updates to follow soon.

The one good thing regardless of track with this system is the increase of deep moisture over the next few days. Our rain chances should increase. It's a double edged sword however, because with an increase in moisture also comes an increase in heat index. Regardless, I am always welcome to increased rain chances in the dog days of summer.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: 8/10/2010


I will get to the forecast without much discussion today as I am running a little behind schedule. Expect today to be a few degrees warmer with the chance of an afternoon shower. High temps should max out around 96-99F with heat indices near 110F. Look for an increase in moisture and rainfall later this week as the tropical disturbance we have been talking about passes to our south. The latest run of the NAM still shows the disturbance to our south on midday Friday. Although it is not expected to impact us directly, it will raise moisture content and lead to more widespread rainfall for the area late this week.

Hi: 97F Lo: 74F Rain%: 20%

Monday, August 9, 2010

Afternoon Update (8/09/2010)

Today has been hot once again. Temperatures across the area have maxed out in the mid 90's which was expected. I was impressed with the rain coverage we received across the 3 counties. The forecast from this morning certainly verified for 30% coverage, but with PW values over 2 inches, temps in the mid 90's and dewpoints in the mid 70's it wasn't a surprise. I certainly don't have the capability to pinpoint locations for rainfall, and I'm pretty sure no-one can, however I am starting to feel more confident with summertime forecasting and may start issuing more detailed forecasts as it pertains to rain. Our most interesting weather feature over the next few days will be the possibility of a tropical storm in the gulf...

Tropical Update

The NHC has upgraded their confidence in tropical development off the Florida coast since my morning forecast. I hinted at the possibility of further development this morning. The 06z run of the NAM model showed development west of Florida with a closed low as early as tomorrow afternoon. That thinking is still consistent with the newest model runs. The 18z NAM still shows a closed low tomorrow afternoon and shows a 1000mb closed low south of the Alabama coast early Friday morning, which would co-relate to a strong tropical storm (slightly less than CAT 1 strength). It is important to remember that the models aren't always correct. There are numerous models to choose from and good forecasts aren't simply "copied and pasted" from the models. It takes attention to detail, intuition, skill, and luck to consistently generate accurate forecasts. I am simply relaying the information as I understand it to be. All that being said, lets keep an eye out in the gulf and see how well the NAM performs. Much more credibility will be given to the NAM if development occurs by tomorrow.

Forecast/Discussion: Monday August 9, 2010

Back to the heat... This week could be an exact copy of last week's weather, with slightly cooler daytime highs. However, heat indices will still break the century mark. As usual in the summertime, there is a chance of an afternoon shower. We have no distinct forcing mechanisms today, so prediction of where it will rain today is quite tough. Today's rain chances will be entirely based upon afternoon heating and small scale boundaries. With PW values near 2 inches, surface dewpoints in the mid 70's, and high temps near 95-98, the opportunity for rainfall exists. I wouldn't go much higher than 20-30% for rain chances today, however, as no synoptic forcing mechanisms are present.

Forecast: High: 95-98F , Lo:77-79F , Rain %: 20-30%


Tropics:
The National Hurricane Center has identified an area near the eastern shore of Florida that has potential to become a tropical storm. Although they have low confidence in its development, I thought it was interesting to note that the North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) identifies an area of low pressure just west of FL in the gulf by noon tomorrow. Just something to watch...

Friday, August 6, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: Friday August 6, 2010


Discussion:
Overnight lows dipped down into the low-mid 70's area wide which was a nice break from the warm nights we've been having. Hi temperatures should be a few degrees cooler today thanks to early morning cloud cover and wet soil. *When the soil is wet, some of the sun's energy is used to evaporate the water out, rather than warm the ground.* Rain chances look pretty decent as the cold front moves ever closer to our area.


Fayette Co.
Fayette- Hi: 94 Lo: 74 Chance of Rain: 50%
Berry- Hi: 94 Lo: 74 Chance of Rain: 50%
Hubbertville- Hi: 94 Lo: 73 Chance of Rain: 50%

Lamar Co:
Millport- Hi: 94 Lo: 74 Chance of Rain: 50%
Vernon- Hi: 94 Lo: 73 Chance of Rain: 50%
Sulligent- Hi: 93 Lo: 72 Chance of Rain: 60%

Marion Co:
Winfield- Hi: 93 Lo: 72 Chance of Rain: 60%
Hamilton- Hi: 93 Lo: 71 Chance of Rain: 60%
Hackleburg- Hi: 92 Lo: 70 Chance of Rain: 60%

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Afternoon Update (8/05/2010)


Discussion: Temps trended cooler today with high's maxing our in the upper 90's area wide. Isolated thunderstorms have developed along a large outflow boundary, or pre-frontal surface trough, which has spawned off of our cold front draped across AR/TN. Expect thunderstorms to increase in coverage and intensity until sundown and then weaken due to the lack of surface heating. Some storms may be severe due to some impressive thermodynamic profiles over our area. The main threat with these storms may be localized flash flooding with precipitable water values near 2 inches. With light winds aloft, these storms will tend to "sit" in one location and dump quite a bit of rain. However, as country music artist Luke Bryan says, "Rain is a Good Thing". Be aware of gusty winds with these storms as well. Wet microburst potential is relatively high for our area and could create wind gusts in the 50+ mph range.

Summary: Expect an increase in coverage throughout the evening with a 50% chance of any location in our area receiving precipitation. 1-2 inches is possible with the stronger storms. Tomorrow seems to be more of the same with high's slightly cooler.

July Rainfall Totals


This is a map compiled by the Birmingham NWS showing monthly rainfall totals for July. The original covered the entire state of Alabama and can be viewed at the link to the Birmingham NWS site on the right. I edited it and zoomed in to our area so that it would be easier to read. The data is typical for summertime, some places received above average totals while others did not. If you have a rain gauge or thermometer at home and would like to post your weather data, feel free to do so. You can post your information in the comment section under each blog entry, e-mail at psr35@msstate.edu, or call me at 205-270-2674.


Scott

Forecast/Discussion: Thursday August 5, 2010



Discussion: One more day of triple digits area wide before we "cool down" and rain chances increase. Rain chances will increase through the weekend due to the arrival of a weak cold front we have been talking about. This front should provide just enough lift to initiate storms tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has recognized the front and placed a slight risk of severe weather for our area. With this extreme heat, ample moisture, and a trigger to get these storms going, I think the SPC made the right decision. However, I am not sure yet to what extent it will rain this weekend. That is something I will monitor this afternoon, tonight, and tomorrow morning.

**Starting tomorrow I will resume doing forecasts for each city as hi's,lo's, and rain chances may differ within the area.**


Forecast:

Expect high's to max out near 100F with the heat index near 110-115 from 12-3pm. Rain chances are near 1 in 3, with the greatest chance late this afternoon.

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Afternoon Update (8/04/2010)


Same story different day. Temps have once again climbed into the triple digits area wide. South-Central Mississippi has benefited from the most thunderstorm activity thus far today, however the radar looks bleak in our area with the exception of two small showers in Lamar Co. Rain chances will increase later this week with the possibility of a "cold front" passing through sometime Fri/Sat. It will be the most interesting feature to watch in this otherwise boring weather pattern. This front will have to battle the area of high pressure currently situated over the region for us to have any chance at precip this weekend. The ridge (high pressure) has weakened somewhat and shifted west, so hopefully that is a trend that will carry through the next few days and open the door for some rain.

Tropical Update: Colin has disappeared. Unfavorable upper-level wind flow prevented Colin from "getting his act together". The NHC is still monitoring his remains, however they place only a 20% chance of reorganization within the next 48 hours. However, the longer he survives as a reminant low, the more interesting he will become. Current thinking leads me to believe that he is a non-threat to the Eastern U.S. and will not affect our weather.

Lawn and Garden Moisture:
Current index shows most of Alabama on the dry side of the scale. The image can be clicked on if you wish to enlarge it. The good news is that the scale only ranges 2 inches either way, so one good rain could be very beneficial. I will re-visit this map over the weekend and compare.

Forecast/Discussion: Wednesday August 4, 2010


Discussion:
Expect today to be very similar to yesterday in the way of temperatures. HI's will reach 100F area wide, dewpoints will stay in the mid 70's, therefore it is possible to see our heat index rise to the 110-115F range! I was impressed with the strength of some of the storms that formed to our south yesterday. Some areas received an inch or so within 15 minutes. The same is possible today, but don't count on a soaking rain area wide. The odds are 1 in 5 at best for any one point within our 3 counties receiving rain today. As usual with summertime thunderstorms, be aware of heavy downpours, strong winds, and intense lightning.


Fayette Co: HI:101 LO:79 Chance of Rain: 20%


Lamar Co: HI:101 LO:78 Chance of Rain: 20%


Marion Co: HI:100 LO:78 Chance of Rain: 20%

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 AM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-051038-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE- CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE- JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY- PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
537 AM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S...WITH HEAT INDICES OF 108 TO 115 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ONCE AGAIN...PROVIDING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HEAT INDICES OF 108-115 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY...BUT STILL HOT...SO A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 105 TO 112 DEGREE RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND GENERALLY NEAR 75 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOTEXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Afternoon Update (8/03/2010)


Current Observations:
Current surface observations show temps throughout the Southeast flirting with the century mark, with Little Rock registering at 105F! The radar shows widely scattered thunderstorms, however I don't expect them to increase in coverage much throughout the remainder of the evening. The forecast for the remainder of the week looks to be more of the same with temps near 100F and little to no chance of rain. I can't rule out the chance of an afternoon shower given the extreme heat and moisture at the lower levels, but I can all but guarantee we won't have a widespread beneficial rain event for the area. I hope I am proven wrong. Expect a slight break from the heat later on this week, if you consider mid-upper 90's a break, as the area of high pressure weakens slightly and retrogrades west.


Tropical Update:
Tropical Storm Colin seems to have trouble staying organized as strong vertical shear is tearing him apart. Current thinking from the NHC has him losing intensity over the next 5 days, and I agree. However, if Colin can survive over the next 5 days or so, conditions maybe more favorable for him to gain some strength and become a factor for the Eastern Seaboard. Although unlikely, I hope this situation plays out. For us in Alabama, a hurricane riding up the east coast would give us a much needed break from the heat. Odds are low at the moment, but it is at least worth mentioning in the briefing. If he were to gain strength along the coast, the area of high pressure would be forced westward, giving us NW flow, cooler daytime temps and overnight lows. Probably not much in the way of rainfall, but I personally wouldn't mind high's in the upper 80's. Wishful thinking at the moment, but worth noting. I will monitor this closely and keep you guys updated.

Thanks,
Scott

Monday, August 2, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: Monday August 2, 2010



Discussion:

Extremely hot today with temps near 100 area wide and heat indices as high as 110 F. Winds will be out of the south supplying abundant low level moisture, however the ridge of high pressure that is allowing all this heat will also prevent any chance of large scale rain showers. Consequently, we will just be extremely hot and humid. It should be noted that any thunderstorm able to form today has the potential to be strong, due mostly in part to the abundance of "fuel" (heat and moisture). Area wide, expect rain chances to fall near 1 in 10, high's close to 100 F, Heat Indices near 110 F, and Southerly winds at 5-8 mph.

***NWS BIRMINGHAM has issued a Heat Advisory lasting through 7 PM Tuesday***

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. DOWN RIGHT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES JUMP INTO THE 106 TO 111 DEGREE RANGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF AS LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID 70S.

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS. MAKE SURE YOUR PETS HAVE PLENTY OF WATER AND SHELTER.