Afternoon Update (8/09/2010)

Today has been hot once again. Temperatures across the area have maxed out in the mid 90's which was expected. I was impressed with the rain coverage we received across the 3 counties. The forecast from this morning certainly verified for 30% coverage, but with PW values over 2 inches, temps in the mid 90's and dewpoints in the mid 70's it wasn't a surprise. I certainly don't have the capability to pinpoint locations for rainfall, and I'm pretty sure no-one can, however I am starting to feel more confident with summertime forecasting and may start issuing more detailed forecasts as it pertains to rain. Our most interesting weather feature over the next few days will be the possibility of a tropical storm in the gulf...

Tropical Update

The NHC has upgraded their confidence in tropical development off the Florida coast since my morning forecast. I hinted at the possibility of further development this morning. The 06z run of the NAM model showed development west of Florida with a closed low as early as tomorrow afternoon. That thinking is still consistent with the newest model runs. The 18z NAM still shows a closed low tomorrow afternoon and shows a 1000mb closed low south of the Alabama coast early Friday morning, which would co-relate to a strong tropical storm (slightly less than CAT 1 strength). It is important to remember that the models aren't always correct. There are numerous models to choose from and good forecasts aren't simply "copied and pasted" from the models. It takes attention to detail, intuition, skill, and luck to consistently generate accurate forecasts. I am simply relaying the information as I understand it to be. All that being said, lets keep an eye out in the gulf and see how well the NAM performs. Much more credibility will be given to the NAM if development occurs by tomorrow.