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Thursday, July 29, 2010

Afternoon Update (7/29/2010)



High's topped out in the middle 90's today as the early morning clouds gave way to sunny skies scattered with small cumulus clouds. I felt fairly confident in my forecast this morning as I believed we would remain mostly dry today and throughout the week...

Well you can't win em all... As I type this, rain is beginning to form puddles outside. I failed to consider the option of a shortwave sliding through and sparking convection during the afternoon. Summertime thunderstorms are like firecrackers, once one develops, another storm forms from the previous one...it's a cycle fueled by surface moisture and daytime heating. There are several days that the heating and moisture are present, but no "spark" to ignite the first storm that initiates the others . Nonetheless, it appears that the eastern side of our area (Eastern Fayette and Marion Counties) will receive the bulk of the rain today with Fayette County getting the most coverage of the three. Any ground reports of rainfall totals will be appreciated. Feel free to call or e-mail as well with reports or questions.



Scott
205-270-2674
psr35@msstate.edu

Forecast/Discussion: Wednesday July 29, 2010


Discussion:
Current surface map shows temps in the upper 70's as of 6 am with light winds out of the NW. Today should warm up across the board by 4-5 degrees compared to yesterday. Expect highs to range from 93-96 from N to S with rain chances around 20%. With our ridge of high pressure shifting westward, expect NW surface wind flow. This should help to keep relative humidities lower that the last few days, however rain chances will also be lower. With warm air aloft, NW flow, and no forcing mechanism, I can't see going above 20% chance of rain for any particular area. Therefore, I won't go into detail for each city today.


Fayette Co.- Hi: 95 Lo: 76 Chance of Rain: 20%


Lamar Co:- Hi: 95 Lo: 75 Chance of Rain: 20%


Marion Co. - Hi: 94 Lo: 75 Chance of Rain: 20%

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Heat Stress in Cattle


With daytime high's projected to top out near the century mark later this week, it is important to understand how the conditions not only impact us humans, but our animals as well. The following is an excerpt from agweather.mesonet.org.

Heat stress can cause reduced productivity in beef and dairy cattle herds. The effects of severe heat stress are often seen in the form of reduced reproductive performance, reduced daily weight gain of growing cattle and reduced milk production. Cattle are more sensitive to heat stress than humans, although cattle do seem to have a wide range of heat tolerance. From an environmental perspective, heat stress is a combination of temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. However, animal factors, such as age, hair coat length, hair coat color, and nutrition status, interact with these environmental factors to determine the severity of heat stress.

What can you do in a heat stress situation?

Provide ample water.

On days when the index is mild or higher the cattle may need more than 2 gallons of water per 100 pounds of body weight. Provide enough tanks for cattle to be able to get the water they need. If possible, water should be cooled. Tanks should be cleaned weekly to encourage water consumption. Making water available under a shaded area will increase cattle water consumption.

Avoid handling cattle:

Handling cattle can elevate their body temperature by as much as 3.5F. If cattle must be worked on days when the Cattle Stress Index is likely to go over 80, try to do the work before 8:00 AM and keep the maximum time in the holding facilities to no more than 30 minutes. On days when the index will be 80 or above, do not work cattle after 10:00 AM. The 60-hour forecast component of the cattle stress index, will allow you to schedule management practices to best maintain cattle health.

Change feeding patterns:

Shift the feeding schedule toward evening on days when the Cattle Stress Index is mild or above. Try to deliver 70% of the daily scheduled feed two to four hours after the peak air temperature. Providing only small amounts of feed during the heat of the day, will decrease the metabolic heat of digestion.

Provide shade:

A shade tree is just as welcome a relief for cattle as humans on a hot summer day. Shade can also be constructed. Shade height should be 8-14 feet tall and should be large enough to provide 20-40 square feet per animal. The most effective shade is a solid reflective roof constructed of white colored, galvanized, or aluminum materials. Shading with wooden slats, plastic fencing, or other materials that allow flecks of sunlight to hit the animals are less effective. If possible two shaded areas are recommended, one over the feed area to increase feeding time, and another away from the feed area to encourage the cattle to rest. Water should be made available under both shaded areas, to increase the water consumption during heat stress period. If the structure is left up year-round, construct a frame adequate for snow load. Shade is insurance against mortality loss. Any performance benefits are a bonus.

Improve airflow:

Consider where the cattle are located and if there is any air restriction. Buildings, high fences, or vegetation can block airflow. A 6-foot high windbreak can obstruct airflow for 60 feet downwind.

Provide water mist:

Providing a spray of water will help to cool the animals down. However it is important to place misters over a clean, concrete area. Running misters over dirt creates mud and increases the potential for mastitis or other bacterial diseases. A timer should be used to run the mister long enough to cool, but not wet the cattle. Do not allow mist to wet nearby feed. Wet feed spoils rapidly with Oklahoma’s summer heat.

Control biting flies:

Stable flies cause cattle to bunch and disrupt cooling. Monitor the situation and control the flies as needed. Eliminate any shallow pools or muddy areas nearby, since they are common breeding areas for flies.

Reference:

Managing Feedlot Heat Stress, Nebraska Extension NebGuide G00-1409-A, August 2000.

Afternoon Update (7/28/2010)



Currently all is quiet for the tri-county area with temperature readings hovering in the lower 90's. Rain chances look slim for the remainder of the evening and appear to be quite low for the rest of the week. Tomorrow will be our best chance for rainfall, albeit not great, for the rest of the week. Look for daytime high's to top out in the mid-upper 90's as the week draws to an end.

The image above is an outlook issued by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) depicting forecasted rainfall totals for the next 5 days. As you can see, we are forecasted to recieve 1/4 of an inch of rain through August 2nd. This outlook is very generalized and lacks much detail, however it paints the picture for the upcoming week...DRY.

For a meteorologist, summertime precipitation forecasts can be the most challenging of all. Several variables influence where, when, and how much rainfall will occur. Coupled with the fact that the resolution of most weather models are too low to predict small scale processes (such as un-organized, summertime thunderstorms), it is easy to see why some days a 50% chance of rain verifies and other days it doesn't. I like to think of the percentages as an indicator of the meteorologists confidence in rainfall for that day, not just the probability of rainfall occurring. There are debates within the meteorological community as to what the percentages even mean, but that argument can be saved for another day.


Scott

Forecast/Discussion: Wednesday July 28, 2010

Short Term:
Not much time to forecast today so I will keep this one short and sweet. Areawide, we are starting the day off with temps in the mid 70's. Expect temps to max out in the mid 90's, slightly lower in N. Marion county. Wind becomes NW shifting to W today, with rain chances around 1 in 3, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Long Term:
The area of high pressure responsible for all of this heat the past few weeks will work its way back to the west and center itself over Alabama late this week. Be prepared for excess heat and dry conditions as we round the corner into next week. I wouldn't be surprised to see triple digits.


Scott

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Seasonal Drought Outlook


The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) monitors several aspects of climate fluctuations, including droughts. The map above shows their current thinking for the entire United States. It is comforting to know that the current outlook is bright for us here in Alabama, especially with El Nino fading away and transitioning towards a La Nina pattern. La Nina patterns are usually more beneficial to us in the Southeast as winters are normally warmer which decreases the liklihood of early freezes. Research has shown that while most La Nina years are drier than normal in the Southeast, Western Alabama seems to be an outlier and retain most of its precipation. Just something to remember as the year goes on...


Scott

Afternoon Update (7/27/2010)


Showers and Thunderstorms held off for most of the day, allowing temps to rise into the low-mid 90's. The radar looks bleak currently as most of the big rain producers are well to our south. Area wide, nighttime lows will hover in the lower 70's with winds out of the south becoming southwesterly by morning. I would expect overnight rain chances to fall near 1 in 4 for NW Alabama, with areas to the south slightly higher as they are closer to an axis of moisture convergence.

Not much activity going on currently in the tropics, which can be a blessing and a curse. We don't want to see loss of life and property, but we sure can use the rain as late summer is the driest part of the year for our area, second to October... However, not to fear as Hurricane season won't hit full swing until mid-August into September and hopefully provide us with some much needed rainfall.

If you have any weather data that you would like to report I would be very appreciative. You can post the data in the comment section at the bottom of each blog entry. Hi's, Lo's, rainfall data... anything is fine. It would be very useful for future forecasts.


Scott

Forecast/Discussion: Tuesday July 27, 2010


Discussion:

Recap-Thankfully the rain finally moved in last night. The map above shows radar estimated precipitation from last night. Radar estimates showed almost full coverage for our area, with the highest amounts in NW Marion Co (up to 4 inches!) Detroit, Hamilton, and Hackleburg were the biggest winners last night receiving an estimated 1.5-1.75 inches. Winfield, Brilliant, Sulligent, and Fayette all received 0.5-0.75 inch; Millport, Bery, and Guin were the least lucky with around a tenth of an inch.

Todays forecast appears to be a replica of yesterdays, however, I can be certain that the outcome won't be identical. We still have the same setup providing increased low-level moisture, and a stalled front to our north. These two features should be the cause for scattered showers later this afternoon once the convective temperature is reached. With the atmosphere being so warm and humid, it is also very unstable. This means that storms have the potential for strong winds, torrential rains, and frequent lightning. With upper level winds quite light, todays storms will be apt to "sit" in one place. Having that said, flash flooding could be an issue especially after the rain we had last night. As far as temperatures go, I expect today to be slightly cooler. Cloud cover this morning coupled with a wet ground should be enough to justify dropping daytime highs by a degree or so. Rain chances are greatest in the afternoon/evening hours today.

Long-term- High pressure shifts back towards the west which brings with it more heat and less rain. Enjoy the rainy start to your week as conditions should slowly heat up and dry out towards the end of the week.

Fayette Co.
Fayette- Hi:93 Lo:74 Chance of Rain:50%
Berry- Hi:94 Lo:74 Chance of Rain:50%
Hubbertville- Hi:94 Lo:74 Chance of Rain:50%

Lamar Co:
Millport- Hi:94 Lo:75 Chance of Rain:50%
Vernon- Hi:94 Lo:74 Chance of Rain:50%
Sulligent- Hi:92 Lo:74 Chance of Rain:50%

Marion Co:
Winfield- Hi:94 Lo:74 Chance of Rain:50%
Hamilton- Hi:93 Lo:74 Chance of Rain:50%
Hackleburg- Hi:92 Lo:73 Chance of Rain:50%

Monday, July 26, 2010

Lawn and Garden Moisture Index 7/26/2010

The Alabama Office of the State Climatology at UA Huntsville issues a daily Lawn and Garden Moisture Index. This map is useful in determining soil moisture over large areas, and can be an early indicator of drought conditions. The map currently indicates lower than average soil moisture conditions for our area due mostly due to the prolonged heat this summer, which increases evaporation rates. It is important to remember, however, that this is merely a snapshot of current conditions, and does not indicate widespread drought conditions. Currently, every county in Alabama is free from abnormally dry conditions per NOAA. With summer in full swing, the take home message from this map is to remember to water early in the mornings and at dusk so that evaporation will be minimized and the maximum amount of water can be absorbed into your soil.


Afternoon Update (7/26/2010)


Discussion:
Well the rain has held off so far today allowing temperatures to climb into the mid 90's. Heat indices are currently in the low to mid 100's as dewpoints range from the low-mid 70's. Previous thinking this morning led me to believe we would have rain/thunderstorms by mid-day due to an approaching front (initiator), ample moisture (return flow from the gulf), and the remnants of Bonnie to the West. However, the front has stalled out in North Alabama which explains why areas like Huntsville have seen several inches of rain thus far today. I still expect to see showers increase in coverage throughout the afternoon due to daytime heating and the abundance of moisture, but probably not a full coverage event. With the atmosphere being as warm and saturated, a few strong thunderstorms are not out of the question.

Final Thinking:
Expect showers to increase throughout the evening with isolated strong storms. Overnight lows look to be pretty uniform throughout the area somewhere between 72-74F. Rain chances look to be 1 in 3 overnight.


Sunday, July 25, 2010

Forecast/Discussion: Monday July 26, 2010

Discussion


Hot and humid remains the story for our area as we are still located under an upper-level ridge which has shifted over to our east. This shift allows for increased rain chances as return flow around the bottom side of the high brings moisture into our area. A stalling front slowly moves into our area today, which could be a trigger for convection later on as things start to heat up. Expect high's in the lower to mid 90's today with rain chances around 50%, slightly higher to the north. Afternoon Thunderstorms with heavy rains and frequent lightning arem't out of the question.



Forecast

Fayette County:

Fayette- Hi:93 Lo:73 Chance of Rain: 50% after noon
Berry- Hi: 93 Lo:73 Chance of Rain: 50% after noon
Hubertville- Hi: 92 Lo: 73 Chance of Rain: 50% after noon


Lamar County:

Millport- Hi: 94 Lo: 73 Chance of Rain: 50% after noon
Vernon-Hi: 93 Lo: 73 Chance of Rain: 50% after noon
Sulligent- Hi: 92 Lo: 73 Chance of Rain: 50% after noon


Marion County:

Winfield- Hi: 93 Lo: 72 Chance of rain: 50% after noon
Hamilton- Hi: 91 Lo: 73 Chance of rain: 60% after noon
Hackelburg- Hi: 90 Lo: 73 Chance of Rain: 60% after noon

Friday, July 23, 2010

Introduction

Welcome and thank you for visiting the West Alabama Weather Blog! The purpose of this blog is to provide accurate daily weather information to residents of Fayette, Lamar, and Marion counties, as well as weekly climate reports, soil conditions, and long range forecasts. I hope to integrate an agricultural aspect into the forecast as it could be beneficial to farmers in the area who rely on accurate and timely weather information.

I am a recent graduate of Mississippi State University with a B.S. in Geosciences concentrated in Operational Meteorology. I am a lifelong resident of Fayette, Alabama and hope to bring benefit to locals in the area who rely on detailed, area specific information.

Weather has always been my passion, rain or shine. The great thing about the weather is the fact that it is constantly changing. The element of change and uncertainty is what makes forecasting so gratifying, or in some cases frustrating. Forecasting the weather truly is an art and not an exact science. However with persistance, attention to detail, and the ability to learn from mistakes, good forecasts can be delivered. That is what I plan to do. Again I appreciate you stopping by and hope to provide you with useful, interesting information in the future. Please feel free to call or e-mail me anytime if you need additional information!!


Scott
psr35@msstate.edu
205-270-2674