Afternoon Update (8/03/2010)

Current Observations:
Current surface observations show temps throughout the Southeast flirting with the century mark, with Little Rock registering at 105F! The radar shows widely scattered thunderstorms, however I don't expect them to increase in coverage much throughout the remainder of the evening. The forecast for the remainder of the week looks to be more of the same with temps near 100F and little to no chance of rain. I can't rule out the chance of an afternoon shower given the extreme heat and moisture at the lower levels, but I can all but guarantee we won't have a widespread beneficial rain event for the area. I hope I am proven wrong. Expect a slight break from the heat later on this week, if you consider mid-upper 90's a break, as the area of high pressure weakens slightly and retrogrades west.


Tropical Update:
Tropical Storm Colin seems to have trouble staying organized as strong vertical shear is tearing him apart. Current thinking from the NHC has him losing intensity over the next 5 days, and I agree. However, if Colin can survive over the next 5 days or so, conditions maybe more favorable for him to gain some strength and become a factor for the Eastern Seaboard. Although unlikely, I hope this situation plays out. For us in Alabama, a hurricane riding up the east coast would give us a much needed break from the heat. Odds are low at the moment, but it is at least worth mentioning in the briefing. If he were to gain strength along the coast, the area of high pressure would be forced westward, giving us NW flow, cooler daytime temps and overnight lows. Probably not much in the way of rainfall, but I personally wouldn't mind high's in the upper 80's. Wishful thinking at the moment, but worth noting. I will monitor this closely and keep you guys updated.

Thanks,
Scott